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Change in Dorset’s demographic make-up can have an impact on service demands and provision for local authorities but can also affect housing demand and business needs.

Changes in our population are shaped by both natural change (births and deaths) and by migration into and out of Dorset.

By projecting future population change, we can plan to target services and resources to the places where they will be needed most.

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Population change in Dorset

In the last five years, the death rate has steadily increased by 10%, while the birth rate has decreased by 14% as shown in the graph below. This pattern is projected to continue over the next ten years. Total number of births in the year 2019-2020 were 2638, total deaths were 4,957. Due to the net decline in natural change (births minus deaths) population growth is driven by migration into the area.

Birth and death rates
Birth and death rates

The graph above shows the contribution net migration makes to population growth. Net migration in the year 2019-2020 was 3,164.

Dorset Council 2009 to 2029 population
Dorset Council 2009 to 2029 population

The figure above shows the components of change for each year. Note years 2020 onwards are projected population.

Over the period 2010-2020, Dorset’s population grew by 15.474, a growth of 4% compared with 7% nationally. Over the period 2019 to 2029, the population is projected to grow by another 4% (16,300) compared to 5% nationally.

Age breakdown of population

  • Over the period 2011-2021, the number aged 65+ grew by 23,100 – up by 46% and is projected to increase by 25,600 - up by 59% - to 2031.
  • The proportion of the population aged 65+ continues to grow; from 25% in 2011 to 30% in 2021 and a projected figure of 35% in 2031.
  • In contrast Dorset’s working age (16-64) population continues to fall; dropping by 7,270 between 2011-2021 and projected to drop by a further 5,600 by 2031.
  • Similarly the population of Dorset’s children continues to decline; falling by 120 between 2011 and 2021 and projected to drop by a further 4,720 by 2031.
  • The top heavy shape of the population pyramid has changed little in the past 10 years and is not projected to change over the next ten. This is illustrated by the graph below which shows proportion of 5-year age groups for 2021 in the green bars, and 2031 the black line. Females are on the right of the graph, males the left. Aging of the early 60’s baby boomers can be clearly seen - driving the bulge in the population between the ages of 55 to 74. This is further increased by net internal migration which is highest for the 60 to 64 age group. Migration out of the area by young adults is also clearly illustrated.
Dorset Council population 2021 to 2031
Dorset Council population 2021 to 2031

Census 2021

  • Much of our data and therefore, how we understand the experiences and issues affecting people in Dorset, comes from the Census
  • The Census is carried out every 10 years and Census Day was on 21st March 2021.
  • As the Census only happens every 10 years, there is likely to be considerable change in our understanding of the population.
  • Census 2021 reflected shifting language and will help with our understanding of marginalised communities, for example asking about Armed Forces service, sexual orientation and gender identity.
  • The Census is important not only for understanding communities but for ensuring that funding is directed where it is needed. Many organisations will use it to plan, predict and develop their services, based on population make-up and characteristics represented in the Census.

Headline Figures

4%

Projected population change 2021-2031

379,800

Total population in 2020

23,100

Increase in +65s 2011-2021, an increase of 2.2%pa

6%pa

+65s projected population change 2021-2031

120

Decrease in 0-15yrs 2011-2021

Headline Figures

4%

Projected population change 2021-2031

379,800

Total population in 2020

23,100

Increase in +65s 2011-2021, an increase of 2.2%pa

6%pa

+65s projected population change 2021-2031

120

Decrease in 0-15yrs 2011-2021

Sources

  • 2020 Mid-year estimates, Office for National Statistics
  • 2019 Components of Population Change, Office for National Statistics
  • 2019 based Dorset Council Continuity projections, Experimental, Dorset Council

35 Reports

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22 Related Datasets

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  • NINO Registrations 2021

    Published: 18 July 2022

    This dataset includes total NINO registrations 2002 to 2021 as well as the most common country of origin in 2021.

    Downloads: 275

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  • 2020 Mid-Year Estimates, Unitary Authority, Historical District and above

    Published: 27 July 2021

    Annual Mid-Year Estimates produced by the Office for National Statistics

    Downloads: 597

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  • 2019 Ward Level Population Estimates

    Published: 23 December 2020

    2019 Office for National Statistics Experimental Population Estimates for Dorset wards

    Downloads: 1211

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  • National Insurance Registrations to overseas Nationals 2019-20

    Published: 09 December 2020

    National Insurance Registrations to overseas Nationals 2019-20

    Downloads: 785

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  • Births Deaths and Natural Change by Country and Local Authority

    Published: 08 December 2020

    Local Authority births, deaths and natural change from Mid-Years 2002 to 2019

    Downloads: 761

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  • Internal Migration for Mid-Years 2002-2019

    Published: 08 December 2020

    Internal Migration by 5 year age group for Dorset Council and Bournemouth, Christchurch & Poole Council

    Downloads: 835

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  • International Migration for Mid-Years 2002-2019

    Published: 08 December 2020

    International Migration by 5 year age group for Dorset Council and Bournemouth, Christchurch & Poole Council

    Downloads: 723

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  • Life Expectancy at birth and age 65, 2019

    Published: 07 December 2020

    Life expectancy at birth and age 65 by sex for Local Authority geography and above.

    Downloads: 651

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  • ONS Sexual Orientation Data at LA Geography (experimental dataset)

    Published: 27 November 2020

    Office for National Statistics experimental data on sexual orientation at LA Geography 2016-2018

    Downloads: 632

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  • Data for EqIAs (diversity data)

    Published: 14 November 2020

    Various diversity data for Dorset with national comparators. For assistance in completing Equality Impact Assessments (EqIAs).

    Downloads: 766

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  • 2018 based Household Projections

    Published: 20 July 2020

    Office for National Statistics 2018 based Household Projections for Dorset

    Downloads: 1653

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  • 2018 based ONS Population Projections for Dorset

    Published: 07 July 2020

    2018 based Office for National Statistics Sub National Population Projections for current and former Dorset geographies in five year age groups.

    Downloads: 1235

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  • 2018 Parish Level Mid Year Population Estimates

    Published: 23 March 2020

    2018 best fit Output Area population to parish geography for all persons by five year age groups.

    Downloads: 1067

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  • Indices of Deprivation 2019- National and Dorset Council Ranks

    Published: 03 January 2020

    The English Indices of Deprivation helps identify and prioritise areas to assist the government and other agencies both national and local in narrowing the gap between deprived neighbourhoods and the rest of the country.

    Downloads: 1514

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  • Indices of Deprivation 2019 - Dorset East Sub Unitary Geography (SUG) Maps

    Published: 11 December 2019

    This pdf illustrates national deprivation levels at a small geography across Dorset East SUG area for 2019. There are sixteen maps which look at a range of components of deprivation including health, income, employment, education and skills, living environment, crime and barriers to housing and services. There is also a multiple deprivation map that combines all these aspects of deprivation to give us an overall picture. The document also has a number of maps that look at specific aspects (sub domains) such as deprivation affecting children and outdoor living environment.

    Downloads: 1384

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  • Indices of Deprivation 2019 - Dorset West Sub Unitary Geography (SUG) Maps

    Published: 11 December 2019

    This pdf illustrates national deprivation levels at a small geography across Dorset West SUG area for 2019. There are sixteen maps which look at a range of components of deprivation including health, income, employment, education and skills, living environment, crime and barriers to housing and services. There is also a multiple deprivation map that combines all these aspects of deprivation to give us an overall picture. The document also has a number of maps that look at specific aspects (sub domains) such as deprivation affecting children and outdoor living environment.

    Downloads: 1875

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  • Indices of Deprivation 2019 - Mid Dorset Sub Unitary Geography (SUG) Maps

    Published: 11 December 2019

    This pdf illustrates national deprivation levels at a small geography across Mid Dorset SUG area for 2019. There are sixteen maps which look at a range of components of deprivation including health, income, employment, education and skills, living environment, crime and barriers to housing and services. There is also a multiple deprivation map that combines all these aspects of deprivation to give us an overall picture. The document also has a number of maps that look at specific aspects (sub domains) such as deprivation affecting children and outdoor living environment.

    Downloads: 1527

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  • Indices of Deprivation 2019 - South East Dorset Sub Unitary Geography (SUG) Maps

    Published: 11 December 2019

    This pdf illustrates national deprivation levels at a small geography across South East Dorset SUG area for 2019. There are sixteen maps which look at a range of components of deprivation including health, income, employment, education and skills, living environment, crime and barriers to housing and services. There is also a multiple deprivation map that combines all these aspects of deprivation to give us an overall picture. The document also has a number of maps that look at specific aspects (sub domains) such as deprivation affecting children and outdoor living environment.

    Downloads: 1941

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  • Indices of Deprivation 2019 - Dorset North Sub Unitary Geography (SUG) Maps

    Published: 11 December 2019

    This pdf illustrates national deprivation levels at a small geography across Dorset North SUG area for 2019. There are sixteen maps which look at a range of components of deprivation including health, income, employment, education and skills, living environment, crime and barriers to housing and services. There is also a multiple deprivation map that combines all these aspects of deprivation to give us an overall picture. The document also has a number of maps that look at specific aspects (sub domains) such as deprivation affecting children and outdoor living environment.

    Downloads: 1659

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  • Indices of Deprivation 2019 - Dorset South Sub Unitary Geography (SUG) Maps

    Published: 11 December 2019

    This pdf illustrates national deprivation levels at a small geography across Dorset South SUG area for 2019. There are sixteen maps which look at a range of components of deprivation including health, income, employment, education and skills, living environment, crime and barriers to housing and services. There is also a multiple deprivation map that combines all these aspects of deprivation to give us an overall picture. The document also has a number of maps that look at specific aspects (sub domains) such as deprivation affecting children and outdoor living environment.

    Downloads: 1222

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  • Indices of Deprivation 2019 - Dorset Council Maps

    Published: 25 November 2019

    The combined map base pdf illustrates national deprivation levels at a small geography across Dorset for 2019. There are sixteen maps which look at a range of components of deprivation including health, income, employment, education and skills, living environment, crime and barriers to housing and services. There is also a multiple deprivation (IMD) map that combines all these aspects of deprivation to give us an overall picture for Dorset. The document also has a number of maps that look at specific aspects (sub domains) such as deprivation affecting children and outdoor living environment.

    Downloads: 989

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  • Ethnicity

    Published: 01 January 2011

    Broad and detailed ethnic population data at District level and above

    Downloads: 1643

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